As the fundamentals of the macro landscape continue to deteriorate with time. Soon, the reality of the global economic landscape will become too dire to ignore.
Oil will not continue to go up with overflowing inventory stockpiles getting increasingly out of hand every week. The tankers who are currently holding oil will not be able to sail around aimlessly forever. This oil must be sold. Until we see massive defaults substantially reduce supply on an international level, oil will continue to be produced at a record pace & the downward pressure on price will continue.
Corporate earnings have been deteriorating. This downtrend is just beginning after unprecedented earnings growth (using non-GAAP) I do not see this trend reversing any time soon. In fact I anticipate the trend accelerating.
Price follows Earnings.
This rally has been short-squeeze driven. Unfortunately, I think that many Bears such as myself thought that after January that was that & placed large short bets.
Well, lord knows the Bears have been punished enough. I'm honestly not too sure how many Bears are left alive after this rally. The test comes now when we see if Bulls have the wherewithal to hold the market up on their own in the face of the whirlwind of shit that is reality..
Fascinated by markets, economics, & herd psychology.