You can't predict the future, nobody can. At the beginning of 2014 if anyone would have told you that oil would be cut in half and the market at all time highs by the end of the year nobody would believe you. I managed to turn a massive win in GPRO into a loss by years end by greedily adding to my position, lowering my cost basis, destroying my cushion on the friday before the lockup. The lockup, the lockup, well yea they changed up the lockups so many times it was hard to keep track of what was even going on. They were too scared to release all the shares at once and instead they managed to orchestrate a short squeeze. God so many fucking short squeezes this year, I'm beginning to get afraid to short, I'm not sure that it's worth the risk. You can make more money going long anyways.
Long and strong, I really thought that the end of QE was going to affect this market and cause it to drop. We had plenty of macro bullshit to contend with, plenty of scares, but in the end the market completely brushed them all off and consistently V-Shaped to new highs. America is just a financial powerhouse. I wish I saw that Emerging Market Exodus sooner and based my biases long but let's face it many prominent Bulls got fucked up this year too. 2014 was a year of chop and frustration for most market participants.
There's just no certainty in this business. You could say that X will affect Y in XYZ way but at the end of the day it's just a guess. The fact that nobody really knows what's going to happen is what makes the market a level playing field. The market isn't going to go up forever, but it also isn't going to go down forever, just as with life it's got it's ups and downs and all you can do is make the best of what you're given.
If you are going to swing trade, then you better have proper position sizing, keep it smaller than you think. You must also have amazing patience and be willing to cut a loss small if your trade goes against you, even if it was at one point a winner.
If you are going to daytrade you better have amazing discipline and use proper position sizing, hard stops and price targets. Don't get greedy, pocket those profits always. Also if you are daytrading you must Never hold something overnight.
Know your timeframe and adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
In summary be patient, disciplined, use proper position sizing, cut your losses small, don't get greedy, and most importantly remember that this is just a business, a means to an end. Money; while useful, at the end of the day just doesn't really mean much. Never let it define you as a person. There are far more important things in life than the size of your bank roll.
Cheers to a better 2015!