Carried on the back of behemoths such as AAPL, AMZN, BIIB, GILD, & NFLX the markets continue to push new all time highs. Of the major indexes only the Nasdaq Composite is not currently trading at all time highs. However; Have no fear the finish-line is in sight. The momentum is in motion and the Bulls are mere days away from cracking the all-important psychological 5,000# before the engine that is Apple fueled by the gas in the tank of the modern day Biotech bubble ramps this beast into uncharted territory! 
 It is interesting to note that although the index is rapidly approaching nominal highs, in real inflation adjusted terms the index still has a ways to go.

Isn't it funny the difference only a few weeks can make? Inebriated by euphoria of marginal new index highs, the Bulls have already forgotten that just yesterday the street was panicked at the reality that the primary and essentially only economic growth engine of America since the 2008 Financial Collapse is being decimated : That area of course being the Energy Sector, as the entire ideal of the 'Shale Oil Revolution' and American oil independence gets systematically taken down and destroyed. What was viable at $100 oil is now a money incinerator at $49 oil.

I personally am glad that oil is down. Gas is cheaper and I have to pay less money to fill up my car at the pump. Lower energy costs are of benefit to most people. Unfortunately things aren't as simple as that; as this report from the chamber of commerce shows that employment growth  in oil & gas jobs far outpaced all other non-farm jobs since the financial crises.

There have, 'been at least 40,000 announced layoffs in the U.S. and, as Bloomberg recently reported, over 100,000 globally. If oil prices stay low for much longer the U.S. could top 100,000 job losses by the end of the year as companies with exposure to low oil prices cut costs to stay afloat.'-source

Well seeing as how today's oil inventory report confirms that there is still a huge supply glut in oil; I don't see the trend of low priced oil reversing any time soon.
This brings me to the point of why the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates any time soon. 

We discover from reading the statement that Janet Yellen gave congress today that the fed has not even began considering an increase in rates yet and that they will only consider it if economic and labor market conditions improve.
Well logically knowing that because energy prices are likely to remain suppressed and also knowing that 90% of the economic data coming in for February has missed indicating a rapidly deteriorating economic landscape we can logically conclude that the Fed won't be raising rates any time soon.

Rate hikes would most likely be Bearish for stocks and that is why the Bulls of Wall St. Fear them so much to the point that they hyperfocus on them. However, the lack of rate hikes is not necessarily Bullish for stocks. Because the rest of the world is rabidly debasing their currencies, The U.S.A just by not lowering rates anymore from zero makes the dollar relatively strong compared to many currencies. The strong dollar is a contributing factor to why oil prices have been bludgeoned so strongly and remain suppressed. Unfortunately for the energy sector the dollar is locked in a massive bullish supertrend which is highly unlikely to reverse any time soon. 

You see, Energy is the key to unlocking this entire puzzle. The artificial financial suppression of interest rates has created a global hunt for yield. As a result many investors have been forced into much riskier asset classes than they are accustomed to in a desperate search for returns. Much of the 'recovery' was built upon highly risky Junk Bond issuance's in what was then, the booming shale energy sector. A bunch of these energy companies have been financed by high interest loans. There are many companies who were barely profitable at $100 oil and with oil at $49 will almost assuredly have difficulty paying off the debt. In many cases these companies will quickly find themselves insolvent with oil below $50, see the oil cost curve in my previous post Reversal/Venezuela/Energy not much has changed since that post last December except that oil has dropped even further and Venezuela has gotten even worse...

We can see from the charts that as energy 'stabilized' in a what is beginning to look like a textbook bull trap in a violent downtrend and investors have been soothed by the Fed that low rates are here to stay, the unquenchable thirst for yield is back on with a vengeance as the High-Yield (or Junk as it used to be known as) bond market has bounced with vigor. Energy stocks have also outperformed the commodity as billions of dollars of bottom callers money has flooded into the market .
Using the knowledge gathered from the inventory reports, and unstoppable trends in increasing oil production and dollar strength a logical person can conclude that oil has further to fall. Once oil gives up the previous $43.58 lows I expect the crowded junk bond trade to unwind and floodgates will open once again.
In conclusion just because the market is making marginal new highs in the indexes powered by limited participation, do not fool yourselves into thinking that everything is rosey. The fallout of the energy sector is very real and there is certain to be contagion...

You can't fight crazy. I just ate a huge loss in UVXY riding that devilish instument for too long. The markets surged to new ATH today ferociously after news hit that the Can of Greek Drama has been kicked down the road for four more months. 
The fundamentals of this market and the global economy are deteriorating rapidly...

I thought that this would matter to the markets but thus far have been proven wrong. 
The Bulls will push this charade until the very end. This market will continue to remain exuberantly bid until the flashpoint, 2008 Lehman like moment which will knock the entire system down to it's knees.

Today I capitulated closing positions in UVXY, MBLY, & SOXS. I also put in hard tight stops on my LL, JNUG, & RUSS positions. The market is mad right now. It is trading as if there is truly nothing that can take it down. 
Oil got hit today, the over-supply imbalance isn't going anywhere. I remain bearish on Oil via SCO & ERY.

I also remain short GPRO. The stock didn't even participate in today's exuberant rally after becoming victim to a viscous two day pump & dump event surrounding their massive insider lockup.

You know the fundamentals are deteriorating. This is pure multiple expansion that we are witnessing. There are many headwinds, many reasons to be bearish. Really by most any rational measure this beast shouldn't be going up at all let alone  rising every day like it's been doing. However, now the S&P is back to making fresh all time highs. 
Up here in space there is no resistance and the market could very easily go hyper-parabolic from here.
 I'm no longer such an ardent bear. Instead, I will focus more on very short term Intraday trading/ Scalping opportunities. Perhaps I will make use of a popular strategy involving 'buying the dip' or more correctly played in this market 'buying the all time high.'
Good Luck playing the Great Central Banking Bubble of 2009-Present

In the face of insurmountable bad news coming in daily, markets are levitating. I don't understand why people are buying stocks. In my eyes there are zero bullish catalysts. Forward EPS estimates have fallen off a cliff. Energy/commodities crashing, the BDI is at all time lows. There is immense turmoil in the world with Greece, Europe, the Middle East, etc.. Obama is now saying that he wants to put troops on the ground to combat ISIS. QE is over, American economic data has been soft... Why are people buying stocks? 
Here's what you need to realize: In this new world of internet trading, technicals rule above all else. 
I want to believe that eventually fundamentals win out in the end. But in the day to day skirmishes, when the market marches ever forward in the face of potential Greece default and Eurozone disaster, not to mention more weak US economic data, It sure is easy to come to the conclusion that fundamentals are a load of bullshit. Yes, eventually the cool heads who were predicting fallout with the dot.com and housing booms were eventually rewarded but many of those people were predicting disaster years before the actual crash event occurred. Following their advice prematurely would have in many cases lost you money...
There is no 'reason' why the market should be going up at least not that I can see but when I watch CNBC all I see is an endless array of clowns being marched out in front of me ranting and raving about the 'recovery' and how great the economy is and how bullish the markets are and how wonderful cheap oil is and how wonderful expensive oil is and how you need to buy buy buy no matter what. It's maddening to somebody like me who actually watches the data, has seen the macro charts, knows the facts of the matter. But if these people that I see represent the Wall St. majority, then wall street is buying the fuck out of this market with a seemingly unlimited supply of ammunition. They have been able to buy up and take us violently higher on every single microblip the market has encountered for the past six years.  
None of this macro news that has been coming out recently has been in the least bit bullish for stocks yet they continue to march higher relentlessly...
Perhaps my greatest folly is being concerned with the 'why.' Why the market does what it does is impossible to answer. You can study psychology and speculate but nobody knows why the market does what it does. This is why I am considering removing all macro and fundamental inputs from my trading strategy.
Clearly, there is a divergence between the way I think and the masses that make up the market. I need to remove any biases I may personally have from my trading decisions because by nature, I am a contrarian. 
To be successful in navigating the day to day business of markets it is much more profitable to be a sheep. Be a robot, follow charts like a robot, manage risk like a robot, trade like a robot. There is no room for error in this business and the business of being a discretionary trader leaves far too much deviation.
In summary: Do not concern yourself with the 'why.' That is a path that leads towards madness and ruin. 
Concern yourself only with the 'what.' What is the chart showing you, what's price doing right here, right now?

If I am going to remain so biased to the Bear Camp, I am going to wait until the technicals show signs of a legitimate breakdown before I push my luck. It looked so good for bears with four downward thrusts, but the bulls just will not give up... 

The truth is, it has been proven that charts aren't really predictive but they do at least show you what has been going on with price. I'm not sure that I can realistically ignore all the fundamentals that have been flashing bright red for quite some time now, but I owe it to my brokerage account to try if what this market wants to do is shoot the moon. Who knows? I don't know why it would, but only time will show what actually happens...

I was going to come into this saying the market is just a casino for traders to make money. On days like this where economic data continues to come in atrocious it certainly feels like rolling dice:

Dec. factory orders declined for the 5th month in a row. The 3.4% plunge is the second largest monthly drop since Mar. 2013.

U.S. factory order declined by 3.6% for the year ended Dec. 2014. That is the largest year-over-year decline since Nov. 2009.

The market staged a massive rally off that data. Crude Oil also ignored the fundamental oversupply/underdemand paradigm it is in and staged an impressive rally today. I get it, oil crashed and was likely due for some sort of bounce but the hard data continues to come in negative and I don't see it actually bottoming until the supply/demand paradigm balances. the USD did back off a little bit and helped commodity prices go up but I expect the weakness to be short-lived. The rest of the world is still lowering interest rates in the race to the bottom.

Easing in 2015: Singapore, ECB, SNB, Denmark, Canada, India, Turkey, Egypt, Romania, Peru, Albania, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Russia, Australia

The market might not clearly see it yet but I do. The pendulum is extended and about to swing the other way. When swing trading it is very important to remain focused, patient, and disciplined.

For now I remain patient. Let the robots fight the day to day skirmishes. I have much greater ambitions than a few points here and there. I may end up be proven wrong but I doubt it... Just give it some time

The tide is finally beginning to turn. I can sense it, feel it, see it happening before my very own eyes as the QE stimulus high begins to wear off and more and more people slowly begin to wake up to some of the things I have been seeing for a while.

The market is turbulent, violent, unforgiving right now. The correction is coming soon... The only question is how does it go down?