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Earnings Week

10/27/2013

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PRKR was a disaster but some positive things for the company came out of the trial. For one the patents are PRKR they were found valid and determined to be PRKR property. This opens the door to a possible injunction against QCOM which would make QCOM unable to continue to use PRKR RF chips. That would give PRKR huge leverage. The past royalties are settled (until appeal) so now they need to determine future royalties going forward. The patents being determined to be PRKR makes PRKR an attractive buyout company to QCOM or other competing technology manufactures who would like the rights to PRKR technology.
$127M is not chump change to PRKR but is significantly less than the $500M-$2B that PRKR was asking for and what was reported by supposedly legitimate analysts. This experience has really opened my eyes to the perils of excessive optimism. You learn quickly in the markets that you can not trust anybody else but yourself. It is just a shame that bank analysts like JP Morgan, GS, and the like are never held accountable for their often downright false information and recommendations.  O well Im not out of PRKR until the futures royalties are determined and we discover if there is to be an injunction or not.

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The market must go on and this week is significant for the state of my portfolio in that its earnings week. 
First up on tuesday 10/28/2013 we've got earnings from TTWO and DDD
TTWO released not only the biggest game, but the biggest media product of all time this year with their blockbuster Grand Theft Auto V. Making over $1B in less than three days and selling millions of copies worldwide TTWO has been the most counterintuitive stock reacting to all the positive news by actually selling off. This company is a prime example that you can never accurately predict the market. I knew the game was going to be big. It was bigger than anyone had anticipated despite what some bears would try to lead you to believe. The stock reacts by selling off... Carl Icahn himself has a decent stake in TTWO and even has his son sitting on the board of directors. Icahn does Not loose money so I have no worries about the future of TTWO. This weeks earnings are huge for TTWO and it will be interesting to see how the stock reacts.

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Also on tuesday we've got DDD earnings.
DDD has been good to me so far this year. I honestly have no idea how earnings are going to turn out but from what I've heard from interviews on CNBC from the ceo they are doing well. DDD is trying to corner the retail side of 3D printing and capitalize on the retail consumer by creating machines that are easy to use and capable of crafting novelty plastic things. They do more than that though heres a big block of text if you want to read the official company description http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DDD_ . I have no idea what will come out of earnings so I'm rolling the dice. The 3D printing sector is hot and I am not worried about turning any 3D printing company into longterm investments.


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Wednesday 10/30/2013 is earnings from BALT
BALT is a dryshipping/cargo ship play on the recently rallied BDI. The BDI has been dropping lately and as a result the shippers have been underperforming the market. However the BDI is still much higher than it was last quarter and BALT is now profitable when it wasn't in the past. This is an earnings play and I hope that the new numbers come as an upside surprise to major analysts who might have missed the rally. 

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Last but not least we have NVO earnings on Thursday 10/31/2013
Novo Nordisk has had a couple significant drug approvals come through lately. I am not sure what the numbers will look like but I'm hoping for the best!

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Should be an exciting week in the market next week. The markets are looking perhaps a bit overextended at the top of the channel they've been working through all year but who knows we could be in for a nice breakout. Good Luck!

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Banking Big in PRKR

10/20/2013

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I've been killing it in the market last week. I made my best trade ever in PRKR banking me over 100% in a few days. PRKR is a semiconductor company who has been locked in a decade long patent infringement battle with QCOM. I was fortunate enough to ignore that lengthy battle and got in on the oversold Doji reversal day. Last and this next week are huge for PRKR. They won the first part of the lawsuit and as a result skyrocketed. I reduced my position and now am just letting house money ride. 
After that huge move PRKR still has lots of short interest in it. In fact in the last few days according to http://shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=prkr Short Interest (Around a huge 43% of the float) has remained steady and actually gone up a bit. Conflictingly according to http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=prkr&submit=Short+Quote%99 the short float is just 26.52%. Im not sure where to find the most accurate up to date short interest information  so if anybody knows please tell me.  Anyways there is no way that all the short sellers have bailed and the second phase of the patent infringement lawsuit is coming. The second part is actually the most important part of this trial in my opinion because it awards the damages that QCOM must pay to PRKR. According to JP Morgan if found guilty the damages could be between $500M - $2B. Parkervisions market cap is currently around $500M so if this pans out for them they stand to see a tremendous influx of capital.
I dont think that this move is over. If they get awarded a good amount of money for damages this stock has another massive rally ahead of it. FWIW the average analyst pt on the street for PRKR is around $11.25 and this stock at one point long ago was trading in the $50 range.
Would I chase it here? Tough call. After the explosive rally last week I would expect a pullback before the awarding of damages however don't be too surprised if it shoots to the moon. I'm not exactly sure when the verdict will be reached but I am confident that once it is this stock is in for another explosive move one way or the other, Im banking on up.

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Short Squeeze Idea: BTH

10/5/2013

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Epic short squeezes have been a common theme of the 2013 bull market. With heavily shorted names such as NFLX,TSLA, and even P rocketing higher 2013 is not a good year to play the bear. Sure we have this government shutdown, the debt ceiling, the sequester, and all the other washington charades that keep popping up and disturbing the stampeding bull market. However, it is my opinion that sooner or later those tea party extremists are going to cave and all will be well with a nice rally to show for it.
Take Blyth (BTH) With over 85% of shares outstanding sold short, this is one of the most heavily shorted names in the market. In 2012 this once proud company was standing strong at a price tag of $45. Today BTH is trading at around $13 nearly a 71% discount to the highs.  BTH does a couple things. Focusing heavily on direct selling they peddle scented candles with their PartyLite  brand. In 2008 they acquired a nutrition and weight loss supplement brand name ViSalus Sciences. There was some trouble in July of 2012 with Visalus, they were trying to spin it off and then the SEC got on their backs over some 'misleading statements.' Theres been a lot of controversy of direct level marketing with the whole Herbalife (HLF) Ackman thing. Im not here to discuss the virtues of direct level marketing however imo its not so bad as it provides the average Joe a source of making some income.
Enter this new small company CVSL. CVSL is a company who focused on direct level marketing, they have been making strides this year with the acquisition of many direct selling companies such as Longaberger, Tomboy Tools, Your Inspiration at Home, and Agel. In a recent conference call the current CEO, former CEO of Mary Kay Mr. Rochan had expressed an interest in 'becoming a major shareholder of Blyth." CVSL has been acquiring shares of BTH on the open market. 
BTH has a public float of 6,500,000 shares. Of those outstanding shares according to shortsqueeze.com 5,567,300 are sold short. With some further catalysts, and some more press it is my hypothesis that we could see short sellers scramble to find available shares to cover. In a similar situation Volkswagen briefly became the most valuable company in the world when Porsche announced that it was aggressively increasing its stake in the company causing the then 12% short float short sellers to cover pushing the price of Volkswagen stock up 4x in a few days. Well if a measly 12% short float could do that to a company, just imagine what a 85% short float could do.
IMO people who continue to short BTH after 75% gains are being pigs. Unless they expect the company to go to zero (an unlikely proposition, if anything CVSL would acquire it) they would be wise to cover their short positions before further catalysts cause a squeeze of epic NFLX, Volkswagen like proportions. 

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Investment Idea: Shippers Full Steam Ahead

10/4/2013

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The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is the index that measures the cost of shipping dry goods across the seas. It has been on a huge rally since july of this year. Before the financial crash in 08 shippers were minting profits thanks to high demand. As a result many shipping companies beefed up their number of ships. However after the crash the BDI or the rate that they could charge dropped to a fraction of its previous glory devastating and forcing many shipping companies to sell their fleets to the banks who liquidated them for scrap metal. As a result, supply has dropped dramatically. Thanks to an increase in the demand for iron ore in china the demand is rising and thanks to the clamp in supply the BDI is is rocketing higher. Companies that were losing money In January are once again profitable. Many analysts have missed the move and have yet to raise their price targets. Look for companies with fleets well positioned for the newfound demand. My favorite is BALT. Other companies include DRYS, EGLE, and GNK

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Introduction, First Post: What is the Market?

10/4/2013

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I entered the exciting, fervent world of the stock market in January of 2013. Since then I have learned a lot and continue to learn more every day. The thing that makes the market so interesting to follow is that is constantly changing. There are no two days in the stock market that are alike. The market is elusive, the market is mythical, the market is this strange device that humans have created as a means of generating wealth and financing business, the market is the massive accumulation, the ultimate experiment in human psychology. For these reasons I follow the market. Actually I lied, thats why the market is interesting. I follow the market for one reason and one reason only. I'm in it to make money.
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    R. J. Sullivan IV

    Equity Research
    Portfolio Management
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