The Swiss Gold referendum is projected to be defeated. Now Switzerland is joining the global unsound fiat party. We have only recently had our money backed by nothing since the 1970s in order to finance Vietnam war efforts. Ironically we have been here before much earlier in history. Long ago primarily to finance war efforts with great Britian we created fiat currency called the Continental Dollar. The currency over time eroded to it's intrinsic value. That is to say the value of an inked piece of paper, worthless. The painful experience of runaway inflation and the collapse of the Continental prompted the delegates to the Constitutional Convention to include the gold and silver clause into the United States Constitution so that the individual states could not issue bills of credit or "make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts."

We've been here before and it ended in disaster. It amazes me how the stockmarket proves that people never learn from their mistakes. The dotcom bubble burst and the feds and shortsided Keynesian economists response was to blow another bubble in housing, when that bubble burst their response was to blow another bubble in the stockmarket, when the next bubble bursts what are they going to do? I know what the 'money for nothing' Keynesians will want to do, but if the money is worthless and interest rates are already at zero how can they blow another asset bubble even if they want to? Eventually we will have to turn to Austrian economics with sound money, with emphasis on savings and production over spending and debt if America wants to stand a chance. If we do not learn some common sense, the runaway greed of the global banking cartel is sure to lead us to ruin. If you do not believe in inflation, know that today's dollar is worth $0.04 compared to the value of the dollar pre-federal reserve, when it was sound money backed by gold. We are on a path to ruin. Thank your congress, thank the federal reserve, thank the Keynesians. Everyone loves a bubble until it pops and the next one is going to be a doozy!

Gold is an interesting commodity that is steeped with a rich history. For nearly as long as humans have been around, people have maintained a rich fascination with the glittery metal. For some reason whenever there is turmoil in the world, people seek safety in gold. Although the value of gold fluctuates up and down and the latest trend for a while has been down; Gold has far too much history deeply engrained into our society for people to simply abandon the metal entirely and deem it worthless. Gold has an advantage as currency over fiat money in that there is a limited supply available in the world, and it is very difficult to obtain more of. Unlike Fiat, you can not simply fire up a printing press and print out an infinite supply of the stuff. Most likely sooner or later this QE/currency war market environment we have been living in for the past four years will implode and the effect it will have on the USD and other fiat currency is unknown. Will gold end up being the largest beneficiary of the next crash? It is impossible to know for sure. 
By nature I'm not some die hard gold bug. The USD has been off the gold standard for such a long time, I think that it is highly unlikely we will ever return to it (not that I would oppose it.) If the apocalyptic scenario many bugs envision actually eventually plays out, there won't be value in gold. The value will be in guns, ammunition, seeds, food, and water filtration. I am however a trader and am seeing a potential opportunity to bank some coin here in a pretty decent technical setup.

Note the potential False Breakdown as a massive wave of fear swept over the gold market in recent months, followed quickly by a textbook reversal candle and subsequent rally. There is also a very bullish RSI Divergence taking place indicating that the downward momentum is waning and reversing. Even if you are not a super bull on gold a snapback rally back to the 20,50,100, or even 200 Moving averages is not insane thinking. Depending on your price target and Stop positioning a long trade on gold either through GLD, miners GDX or GDXJ or their various leveraged etfs offers a very intriguing play with a favorable Risk/Reward ratio.

Large Caps at New ATH

Mid Caps not quite there

Small caps trapped bears viciously with the october dip

The old leaders are one by one getting hit

The new leaders have little price memory

Bullish Euphoria Abounds

Gold/Currencies very volatile

It's getting cold. Natty setting up a seasonal trade?

The Music Plays On...

Gold is dead to me JNUG, CDE rip

Grinding into oblivion...

When Alibaba went public, similar to the Blackstone BX ipo, it coincided with peak euphoria in markets. We have bubbles in silicon valley,social media, and China all happening right now and BABA is the epitome of the crossroads. The massive liquidity event and subsequent buyer exhaustion helped contribute to last months declines.. However one massive V-Shaped rally to new highs later, the enthusiasm of the Bulls is back and stronger than ever. Alibaba is leading the charge,pushing fresh highs and earning a market cap of $283.6B surpassing even Walmarts WMT market cap of $254.5B.

Alibaba is the new leader of the bubble market and I am considering it my tell going forward. Only when BABA begins to crack and breakdown do the Bears stand a chance of sinking their claws into this market.

The markets been throwing me for a loop with the central banker Japanese QE baton handoff and the rip roaring V rally to new ATH. However, there is one thing that I feel more confidence about than probably anything else in the market right now and that is GPRO stock is about to get decimated. GPRO went to market with an exceptionally low float . This is a timeless investment banker trick. The small amount of available shares means that if there is any demand at all the shares tend to skyrocket.

'GoPro offered 17.8 million shares at the time of its IPO. This included 8.9 million shares to raise money and another 8.9 million shares sold by existing shareholders, including the company's founders. Meanwhile, GoPro has 123 million shares outstanding, plus nearly 30 million shares in employee stock options and restricted stock.' -Forbes

Today GPRO announced a secondary raising $100M in new capital but it is mostly a guise for impatient insiders to front run the big Lockup coming in December.

'The move is designed to spread out the impact of nearly 108 million shares that could have hit the market on Dec. 22. That many shares would have raised GoPro’s current stock-market float more than eightfold. Large shareholders who participate in the offering will have to agree to a new 90-day lockup.

That may delay some pain for GoPro’s other investors, though it isn’t clear by how much. No share amounts were specified in Monday’s filing.

In an email to employees, Mr. Woodman said GoPro would raise about $100 million through the offering, which leaves $700 million under its stated maximum for company insiders to sell. With the stock trading around $76 currently, that would represent a little more than 9 million shares—less than 10% of those under lockup.' -WSJ

Using the WSJ numbers I have created a graphic to illustrate the magnitude of the supply becoming available to GPRO stock.

It's not rocket science. It is simple supply and demand. You can be the best, most profitable company in the world, an increase in supply of that magnitude will negatively impact the stock price.

GPRO is trendy and cool right now but it is what it is and right now it's a camera company trading at 65x forward earnings.

All I'm saying is that even of you are a true believer of GPRO, it may be prudent to wait until after the new supply gets digested before initiating a long position.

For the first time in history people are Net Short Volatility

Now that volatility is close to the lowest it has ever been people are positive it is going lower...

After that wicked V-Shaped Rally people are back to being the most bullish they have ever been. Just look at me, right now I am net long and I have been as big a bear as anyone.

I am more convinced that the bull market is on it's last legs now than ever. But when does it end? I simply do not know. It could happen any day. Tommorrow or a year from now..

Look at what has happened to silver. This parabolic chart pattern plays out the same Every Time.

Investor Sentiment is the most bullish it's been in 2014 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buyer-beware-investor-sentiment-at-highest-level-of-2014-2014-11-06

I'm starting to get the feeling the market is about to go parabolic.

I think that one final grand finale massive blow off top could be in the cards..

It has occurred to me that I am getting my ass kicked trying to short a market that refuses to show one day of weakness. The V shaped rally has been quick and forceful from the October lows. Anyone who was in disbelief either shorted prematurely or had no time to react. I'll admit I have a natural tendency to gravitate towards pessimism. I don't know why that is, it is just the kind I person I am.
I have spent so much energy investigating the bear thesis it is time that I take a harder look at the Bull thesis.

• Central Banks are arguably the most accommodating towards markets they have ever been in history. One of the objectives of QE was to essentially force people into risky assets in hopes of creating a wealth effect that in theory spreads to everyone. With interest rates the lowest they have ever been it's frankly one of the best times in history to take out a loan. The fact that margin debt is at an all time high tells me that people must have a lot of confidence in the market right now.
  
• The trend is up. Long term, short term, we made a new ath today and that's a fact.
• Longs can make more money and lose less. There is unlimited upside and the lowest a stock can go is 0.
  
• The Feds got our back. Every time in recent history the market has started to drop significantly the fed has jumped in and saved the day. Will next time really be any different?
  
• Rising USD and falling Oil benefits consumers (as long as their jobs aren't dependent on expensive oil) There is a possibility that consumers benefit more than oil companies suffer.
  
• Republicans control the house and senate and are notorious for supporting big business. After all why should the top 1% be forced to pay taxes as high as everyone else? Job creators right? wink wink
  
• Stock valuations are cheap.. Compared to the dot com bubble.
  
• Buybacks benefit shareholders and are a good use of capital.. Isn't that right IBM?
  
• A crash benefits nobody but bears. The general public hates bears. profiting from a decline of a companies stock seems immoral to some people.
  

There is a case to be made for Bulls. They certainly have trend, momentum, sentiment, and central banks on their side, and besides optimism feels great!

They say that nothing ever changes, least of all in the stock market. This leads me to believe this bubble is just going to keep on inflating until it pops. So let's all just keep playing musical chairs until the music stops! Who knows maybe this time is really different and the jukebox plays on forever? (After all there is plenty of power thanks to cheap and abundant coal!)

All we can do is study the charts and determine if the Risk/Reward of putting fresh capital to work is favorable or not.