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Bearish Confirmation Bias

6/16/2015

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This long sideways choppy market has successfully worn me down. I've finally reached the point where I fully acknowledge that I cannot possibly predict the future. The overnight gaps of the market have been random and punishing to traders caught off-sides. I no longer have any desire to hold onto and swing any one individual stock. I have changed my trading strategy to that of a day trader, buying dips and selling rips of the /es futures intraday. This market has been frustrating. I'm sure I am not alone in stating that. Market Participants are worn down. It almost seems as if the market has gotten to a state where more sideways consolidation is expected, with little conviction in big directional moves either way. This has all been a consequence of the trend-less sideways action going on 6 months now..
Despite all this, I still find myself having a hard time completely shaking my bearish biases and going fully cognitively neutral... Perhaps it is because of the action I am seeing underneath the surface. Let me show you the charts I am watching that keep me biased to the bear side...
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I have been posing this chart for months. This chart has been and continues to be the crux of my Bearish thesis. I suspect that a primary contributor of the sideways action in equity markets has been the sideways consolidation of the U$D. A decisive breakout in either direction of the dollar could have massive ramification of the fate of the stock market...
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To me, the action we have been seeing in equity markets of late reeks of distribution. This chart confirms that instinct as we can plainly see that money has been steadily dripping from Bullish Rydex funds since the beginning of the sideways chop.
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Sentiment is a big deal. Zooming out from the previous chart we can see that not only is money leaving Bullish Rydex funds, the movement is breaking well defined trendlines.
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A pure sentiment gauge such as the AAII shows Bullish sentiment at an extremely low level. What happened to all the rockem sockem bulls who were stampeding the market just a few months ago?
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I'm not much of a MACD trader myself but the ominous bearish cross on the monthly chart from extreme overbought conditions should strike a little fear into any die-hard bull.
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I made this chart calling the Top a while ago. My thesis was that a major reversal in the bond market would have major ramifications that would spill over into the equity market. The top call was kind of a joke but look what happened. It retested it but it has not been negated. The more time we spend under the level and under major MA, the more bearish the technical outlook becomes...
These are just a few charts that I check every day. Obviously it is impossible to know what the market will do next with certainty but it is important to note that it has gone net/net nowhere for over half a year now. Bearish sentiment is beginning to creep into the psychology of traders, at least investors are measurably less Bullish than they have been in quite some time. We have a big fed meeting tomorrow. The speculation of will they or wont they raise rates is getting quite old so hopefully we get some sort of clarification on the issue soon. I suspect the direction that the U$D breaks will be the macro tell for which direction this currently trend-less market ultimately decides to go. 
I am trying to stay neutral as hard as I can right now, acknowledging I cannot possibly know what the future will bring but as I watch the bifurcation underneath the surface unfold I find my Bearish Bias hard to shake...
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    R. J. Sullivan IV

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