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Boom, Welcome to 2015

1/15/2015

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The Swiss Central Bank out of the blue removed the Euro Cap to the Swiss Franc and the Swiss Franc Exploded 18.22%. For Forex, something that barely moves 1% on a very volatile day a move like this is extreme. Forex is insane in that you can use something like 100x leverage on your money. I guarantee you that many forex traders blew up on this rocketship, as well as many making fortunes.
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The market is breaking down. The SPY is getting weak and I am playing for the already weak Emerging Markets EEM to roll over and break down further from the bear flag.
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Oil remains extremely weak. 
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  • Better be careful with homebuilders. Today LEN misses w/ weak margins. KBH missed with tighter margins as well earlier this week and got hit hard. 
  • Homebuilders are using more incentives to sell. Keeps home prices inflated but cuts into margins. Same thing happened before housing bubble collapse. Housing prices are about to drop significantly imho.  Also Fannie/Freddie guaranteed mortgage loans requiring only 3% down payment is a default disaster waiting to happen.
  • Technically the weekly XHB looks like it is putting in a reversal candle suggesting that was a false breakout a couple weeks ago.
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GPRO is getting massacred. 
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I hit my target price in KING and covered the short position for a nice win.
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There is fear in the markets as the VIX is elevated.
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The Market is acting like it is topping out. Be careful.
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    R. J. Sullivan IV

    Equity Research
    Portfolio Management
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