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Breadbox Rotation Is On

6/10/2016

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Look, The Breadbox Rotation is On and I am a straight up soft-commodities Bull.
It kicked off with Soybeans and Sugar and ever since that. One-by-one these markets have been taking off.
I'm going to play it, well with whatever looks to be the best set-up market at the time. Hard to chase when some of these markets have already skyrocketed and are in all likeliness due for pullbacks but right now I've got my eye on Coffee & Cocoa.
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Cocoa looks primed. in this 3 year chart, even as all the others got smacked, cocoa held firm like a champ with almost no giveback. High and tight, multi-year Bull Flag.
Coffee & Wheat look set-up like a spring that's been held down. So much pent up energy and these markets have yet to seriously rally like Sugar & soybeans. I suspect money is going to rotate down the line. 
With softs catching a bid and the stock market floundering around like a fish out of water, I have no doubt that hot money has their eyes on these markets. Underperforming fund managers will do anything to make back losses, perhaps that means they delve into the world of commodities.

I'm still not an industrial commodity Bull. Somehow oil tagged $52 briefly but the supply/demand paradigm is still out of whack in there. 

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This markets been a fine-mess this year. I think we can all agree with that. Headfakes galore and no clear direction. Just when you think you've got the direction pegged, it pulls the rug out. Bull or Bear, this year has been treacherous.
I don't know that I expect the Dollar to go significantly higher in the short-term anymore. At best, likely we see more of the same sideways chop. The central bankers have it boxed in, and nobody wants to see any dislocating currency moves.
Investor sentiment is all over the place. It won't take much of a downdraft to send people running in fear but at the same time there is a distinct fear of missing out a breakout to new highs. 
Nothing is certain in this business but Bull & Bear markets do not last forever.
I'm here to tell you that the Breadbox Rotation is on!
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    R. J. Sullivan IV

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