I want to believe in the Breadbox Rotation, say that commodities have bottomed and they are going much higher. Everything was going swimmingly until Friday of this weeks trade when King Dollar flexed his might. The dollar seems so benign, endlessly whipsawing back & forth but on Friday it went up a healthy .5% and took down the entire soft commodity complex with it. The correlation is truly shocking how intimately tied together the markets are. Dollar Up: Commodities Down. That's the basic inverse relationship. It seems trivial. Sometimes the correlation fades but on Friday the correlation certainly proved true..
So I am torn.. I want to believe in the breadbox rotation. But I am also a dollar bull who believes that our dollar is headed much higher...
Every time I am swinging and it is working I always say I am going for the big move. I just want to do nothing and let it ride.. But sooner or later a big downdraft comes that knocks some reality into me..
As of now I am still holding, swinging long KC coffee, CC cocoa, & ZC Corn. I am short QM Crude Oil...
When I have some more margin I would like to add long DX dollar..
I really don't know what's going to win out but today's trade proved a point.
It's the Dollar vs Everything..