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Golden Gilded

11/21/2014

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Gold is an interesting commodity that is steeped with a rich history. For nearly as long as humans have been around, people have maintained a rich fascination with the glittery metal. For some reason whenever there is turmoil in the world, people seek safety in gold. Although the value of gold fluctuates up and down and the latest trend for a while has been down; Gold has far too much history deeply engrained into our society for people to simply abandon the metal entirely and deem it worthless. Gold has an advantage as currency over fiat money in that there is a limited supply available in the world, and it is very difficult to obtain more of. Unlike Fiat, you can not simply fire up a printing press and print out an infinite supply of the stuff. Most likely sooner or later this QE/currency war market environment we have been living in for the past four years will implode and the effect it will have on the USD and other fiat currency is unknown. Will gold end up being the largest beneficiary of the next crash? It is impossible to know for sure. 
By nature I'm not some die hard gold bug. The USD has been off the gold standard for such a long time, I think that it is highly unlikely we will ever return to it (not that I would oppose it.) If the apocalyptic scenario many bugs envision actually eventually plays out, there won't be value in gold. The value will be in guns, ammunition, seeds, food, and water filtration. I am however a trader and am seeing a potential opportunity to bank some coin here in a pretty decent technical setup.

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Note the potential False Breakdown as a massive wave of fear swept over the gold market in recent months, followed quickly by a textbook reversal candle and subsequent rally. There is also a very bullish RSI Divergence taking place indicating that the downward momentum is waning and reversing. Even if you are not a super bull on gold a snapback rally back to the 20,50,100, or even 200 Moving averages is not insane thinking. Depending on your price target and Stop positioning a long trade on gold either through GLD, miners GDX or GDXJ or their various leveraged etfs offers a very intriguing play with a favorable Risk/Reward ratio.

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    R. J. Sullivan IV

    Equity Research
    Portfolio Management
    ​Trading

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