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Here's Where I Stand

5/20/2016

3 Comments

 
Let's get one thing straight. These markets are hell right now.
The market should have never held up this long. Earnings are crumbling.
The USDollar is holding strong despite a rash of Bearish sentiment recently.

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One-by-one the leaders get taken down, shot-dead you can see the wings crumple in mid-air.
Only the staunchest staples like Campbells Soup traunch higher, leading the way into the void of the recession.
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Giants falling below their 50dma
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Retail looks like a war-zone with casualties stacking deep.
The narrative right now is that 'Amazon is eating everyone else' 'Brick & Mortor retail is obsolete & a dead industry.'
Even if that were true. Imagine the mass-layoffs if the malls get boarded up.
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Venezuela looks like hell with a mob burning alive a thief over $5. All this despite oils miraculous resurgence just this week hitting $49.56. Cushings Inventories ATH
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Idle oil tankers sitting off the coast of Singapore
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That volatile oil market. Up & Down she goes. Where it lands? (no-one knows)
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The signs are there. Economic deterioration. Deleveraging. Credit Contraction. Default.
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What's to lead the Bull higher with every major sector of the S&P Topped Out? Even the mighty consumer staples look to finally be cracking.
Look, I tried to do the daytrading thing. Make a little every day get out & walk away but then I would blast away a week in one bad day. Playing the casino like that, you have big hot streaks & devastating cold-streaks. Just look at these market internals. The technicals. The defaults. The oil tankers hundreds deep sitting off singapore. The markets are not healthy. 
The Fed is still talking rate-hikes but the market laughs it off. The Fed lost all credibility with Decembers one-and-done move. They backed away from that tightening rhetoric the second they realized they put their hand on a hot-stovetop.
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I'm going to gun it short & I am going to swing my position until it pays off handsomely. 
That is how I made my money three times & how I will make it again.
Only next go-round, the Bull isn't going to get saved again. 
Watch this market take out SPX 2045, then 2000, then 1900.
Next thing you know we will be swimming at SPX 1600 and the sharks going to be feasting on the remains of a million underwater Bulls.
3 Comments
Howard Merle
5/24/2016 06:17:16 pm

http://charliebilello.tumblr.com/post/144865607539/the-black-swan-siren-song


This guys post sums it up for me( Type A personality , who over thinks,over research, over everything). We will not succeed until we shed our old ways of thinking.I love Peter Lynch's Quote . " Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves. It's time for me to change me , not the markets or people, or anything. For me to succeed I have to change me and that is what I am going to do .When I change my thinking then I can go forward, because without a clear , unbiased view, I will never succeed.No more books, indicators, seminars, did that for years.The answer is me.I have to deprogram my thinking of everything.That is what over thinkers have to do. Before will can move forward in life, the stock market we need to go back. Back to a time before we shaped our view of everything.This I feel from my heart is when us over thinkers can trade the market. We need to strip the paint on our brains. That picture of how things should be but don't seem to go that way.The key is right in our own heads.Until we fix it we will struggle. I am going to the sidelines. Coach take me out , I need help , I need to fix me.That's what I am going to do.

Reply
PP
5/25/2016 09:05:57 am

just curious... how big was your position?

Reply
KKJLO
5/25/2016 10:40:26 am

Dude, you think the market is just going to sit near all time highs just for you to short it? If the trade looks too easy...it's too good to be true.

Reply



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    R. J. Sullivan IV

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