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In Support of the Breadbox Rotation

8/9/2016

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I believe that soft commodities are in the early throws of a new Bull Market. 
Quantitative easing has brought upon markets an insatiable demand for financial assets. 
Companies have been taking advantage of the relentless bid with record debt-issuance 
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Global corporate-bond deals setting records. (No doubt thanks to the ECB)
The bid is there, despite corporate earnings power not keeping up.
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Who needs earnings when you can just take on more debt?
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I have never seen Mr. Market reward the majority. Whenever sentiment reaches extremes like this, it usually marks some sort of top but who knows? I think that at best, equity markets are dead-money moving forward. The bulls all say, global QE, Zero Interest rates, don't be a fool, buy the dip. But the Bears say, open your eyes, look at the distortions, the earnings are deteriorating and there is a mania in the credit markets never seen before in the history of markets. This will surely not end well!
You know, I am in that Bearish camp and thus, I refuse to play the 'greater-fool' equity casino. 
However, I have my eyes elsewhere. Quietly, in the shadows we see the soft commodities making progress.

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Many softs are finally finding support above rising 1yr MA
Soft Commodities have been in a devastating five year Bear Market. As financial assets benefited immensely from quantitative easing, real assets suffered. Call it oversupply, call it momentum, whatever you want to call it: investors have favored financial assets over this time period. The trade has been front-running the central banks in the bond markets and chasing yield wherever you can get it. 
​However, no trend lasts forever. As the treasury pool shrinks, equity valuations get stretched to unfathomable extremes, sooner or later sentiment will change once again in favor of real assets. 
The gold & silver markets have been on fire this year. I believe this is a crucial first step towards a more pervasive bid in commodities. 
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Soft Commodity ETF: DBA has a Bullish Momentum Divergence on the weekly after a devastating 5yr Bear Market
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Silver & Gold: Explosive Rallies
The major risk to the thesis is the Dollar. But as long as the dollar sports this dead-money action I believe the softs have a good shot at a sizable rally.
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Sugar is leading
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Cocoa: Strong as an ox
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Soybeans: Pop & Drop but finding support at the 50wma
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Corn & Wheat are dogs. Dragging down the complex after record yields this year. But who knows? Maybe the worst is priced in to these markets and they just had their final shake-outs..
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Cotton: A Beast!
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Coffee looks primed to my eye: The most actionable setup
I've compiled a List of Agricultural related companies. As you can see. Ags are hot! A bid in these equities helps confirm my thesis that investors are already beginning to shuffle money into the sector.
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This market is treacherous. Just when you think you've got it all figured out Mr. Market will surely beat some humility into you. However, the S&P is a crowded trade. The credit markets are cracked out to the max.
Not many people have their eye on agriculture yet & that's what I look for. 
Beat the crowd, plant some seeds and watch them grow. This Bull-Market is in it's early innings!
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    R. J. Sullivan IV

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