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Inversion

5/11/2017

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Once upon a time there existed this monetary phenomena called 'Interest Rates.' 
Indeed, with these interest rates it was believed that money had value.
People thought that money was 'more valuable today than in the future.' 
This differential fusion of monetary value and time created the concept:
​Time Value of Money that all modern finance is based off.
The  2008 housing crisis hit. Panic, Central Bank Intervention, Quatitative Easing, yadda, yadda: We all know the story...
A decade later we find ourselves swept up in a euphoric stock market at dizzying heights. Euphoria is in the air as engines of cash inciniration capture the fervor of investors with an insatiable appetite for risk!
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What? Me Worry? : VIX at Decade Lows
As hedge-funds crumble and passive investing is sung as gospel. We are all reminded of the perils of 'wit.' 
Yet there are developments worth noting; if for nothing but a snapshot in time...

The Yield Curve

The underpinnings of the entire financial system: US Treasuries provide the 'Risk-Free-Rate.' 
If equities are a stream: Treasuries are the ocean. The domain of whales.
Here, we measure tremors as basis points %'s as earthquakes. A sea of $Trillions.
​After a decade of smooth sailing, the water is stirring...

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The Yield Curve appears to be Inverting.
Credit Conditions are rapidly deteriorating. 
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OPEC Disillusionment finally setting in.
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Retail is dying at an alarming rate..
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Unsurprisingly, the Central-Bank economists rosy growth forecasts have not quite hit the mark.
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Negative Yields in Switzerland.
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US Housing Prices are back to pre-crisis levels but the run looks like childs-play next to Canada!
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China
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Weakest Velocity of Money On Record
Anyways, this is what I'm seeing under the surface of this:
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The stock indices are strong. Resilient. 
So what do you do?
Stay the course, work hard, live your life. 
I've got one more semester of school left before I take the CFA and break into the industry. 
The Macroeconomic landscape is certainly fascinating right now. Truly uncharted territory. But market timing?
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Sir Issac Newton couldn't even do it
I think that the best course of action at this point is to keep your wits about you. Diversify your portfolio with high-quality dividend-paying companies trading at reasonable valuations. Play the long-game and be at peace.
Watch that yield-curve though: It's trying to tell us something...
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    R. J. Sullivan IV

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