Here's what you need to realize: In this new world of internet trading, technicals rule above all else.
I want to believe that eventually fundamentals win out in the end. But in the day to day skirmishes, when the market marches ever forward in the face of potential Greece default and Eurozone disaster, not to mention more weak US economic data, It sure is easy to come to the conclusion that fundamentals are a load of bullshit. Yes, eventually the cool heads who were predicting fallout with the dot.com and housing booms were eventually rewarded but many of those people were predicting disaster years before the actual crash event occurred. Following their advice prematurely would have in many cases lost you money...
There is no 'reason' why the market should be going up at least not that I can see but when I watch CNBC all I see is an endless array of clowns being marched out in front of me ranting and raving about the 'recovery' and how great the economy is and how bullish the markets are and how wonderful cheap oil is and how wonderful expensive oil is and how you need to buy buy buy no matter what. It's maddening to somebody like me who actually watches the data, has seen the macro charts, knows the facts of the matter. But if these people that I see represent the Wall St. majority, then wall street is buying the fuck out of this market with a seemingly unlimited supply of ammunition. They have been able to buy up and take us violently higher on every single microblip the market has encountered for the past six years.
None of this macro news that has been coming out recently has been in the least bit bullish for stocks yet they continue to march higher relentlessly...
Perhaps my greatest folly is being concerned with the 'why.' Why the market does what it does is impossible to answer. You can study psychology and speculate but nobody knows why the market does what it does. This is why I am considering removing all macro and fundamental inputs from my trading strategy.
Clearly, there is a divergence between the way I think and the masses that make up the market. I need to remove any biases I may personally have from my trading decisions because by nature, I am a contrarian.
To be successful in navigating the day to day business of markets it is much more profitable to be a sheep. Be a robot, follow charts like a robot, manage risk like a robot, trade like a robot. There is no room for error in this business and the business of being a discretionary trader leaves far too much deviation.
In summary: Do not concern yourself with the 'why.' That is a path that leads towards madness and ruin.
Concern yourself only with the 'what.' What is the chart showing you, what's price doing right here, right now?