Trading is really all about gauging the mood of the market.
Sentiment drives price.
Positive, Negative sentiment. Because investors are so fickle and risk adverse, fresh inputs such as news and events can cause rapid price dislocation and rediscovery.
This is why holding positions overnight is so dangerous. All that market moving news comes out when the market is closed and liquidity is low or nonexistent. That lets people sit and stew in that news o/n waking up to an unpredictable gap in price.
The market loves tricks. This is a game. This is a game of risk, chance, probability. Big money is on the line.
Everyone is scamming everyone. Penny stocks, derivatives, predictions, financial advisors, analysts, & market gurus... Be careful out there. Finance is a world of bullshit where everyone unites under the selfish goal of pocketing the other guys money and getting rich.
Everyones on their own timeframe, their own world, with their own perspective. I used to think you could predict the longterm and maybe you can but you really cant. I think many people go into the markets with that thought like they really found the next big stock and they are going to ride it to glory. The problem with getting to attached to something is that it becomes harder to get out when you should, when the gettings good. Turning a profit into a loss is a cardinal sin in trading but its easy to do. The more profit you are sitting in the more confidence you have in holding that position. You ride a few countertrend rallies that reverse and resolve favorably and you start to think that will continue forever. But eventually the tide turns and you may find yourself wondering why you were so foolish to not take profit at the highs/lows.
DDD XONE HIMX GPRO PRKR all come to mind for me.
The more experience you gather, the less certain in anything you become.
Lets be honest, if the game was about outsmarting everyone, none of us would stand a chance. The worlds best and brightest have all been recruited by wall streets most powerful firms. The mathematical and engineering genius minds of our time aren't out there helping out humanity, they are tinkering with VIRTUS latest HFT algorithm.
Wall streets tricksters with their fake outs, stop runs, front running, chop-boxing, the list is endless but this is all part of the game so learn from them.
Anyways, you can't really predict the future so be safe, protect your capital, take what you can get from the day and be happy with it. The market will always be around and will always be moving. A short term trader has infinite opportunities to make money. The successful traders know to patiently wait for the opportune moment to strike. Wait for the proper conditions/time to align itself. Price action will do something to trigger your trade. Get in and out quickly, a sniper. If it does something weird, get out immediately. Sitting through chop is not worth the stress. Never fear missed chances. It is a certainty that another opportunity will arise.