The Bear Raid

Flawless Victory! The H&S Pattern I had been looking at for months finally played out. The Bulls were slaughtered as the Dow fell over 1000 points under-towing all the major indices red on the year.

The raid was a huge success. It was a major shot across the bow of the Bull Market. Thursday was the most money I had ever made in a single day, that is until Friday. I had two five-figure days in a row and in 3 days I doubled my account! However, this is no time to get overconfident and lose focus. If I have learned anything it is that after a great victory is actually the time to be the most cautious, as a loss of discipline coupled with a shot of bravado quickly leads to large losses and mind numbing whipsaws. 

So are we in a new sustained Bear Market now? I would argue yes. I fully expect the S&P to mean revert back to 1600. However, the market isn't easy & the market is never obvious. The  question is how do we get there? Playing Bear for so long I have grown accustomed to violent whipsaws, as a result my trading strategy has become more cautious, playing shorter timeframes. I am not yet convinced that Bears are totally out of the woods yet. I expect there to be more whipsaws and most likely one final big Bull-Trap rally before all is said and done...

My main concern is seeing the Dollar Sell Off. I suspect that when we finally see the Dollar push new highs against the Euro that is when the Bear Market will accelerate! 
We are in uncharted waters now. I am not sure how this market will trade. I am unsure how/if/when the snapback rallies will occur. However, I do know that we will work our way lower over time.
Welcome to the Bear Market!