Bigsky Investments®
  • Home
  • Equity Research
  • Blog
  • On Watch
  • Market Data
    • Portfolio
  • 🌲

The Bear Raid

8/23/2015

0 Comments

 
Picture
Flawless Victory! The H&S Pattern I had been looking at for months finally played out. The Bulls were slaughtered as the Dow fell over 1000 points under-towing all the major indices red on the year.
Picture
The raid was a huge success. It was a major shot across the bow of the Bull Market. Thursday was the most money I had ever made in a single day, that is until Friday. I had two five-figure days in a row and in 3 days I doubled my account! However, this is no time to get overconfident and lose focus. If I have learned anything it is that after a great victory is actually the time to be the most cautious, as a loss of discipline coupled with a shot of bravado quickly leads to large losses and mind numbing whipsaws. 
Picture
So are we in a new sustained Bear Market now? I would argue yes. I fully expect the S&P to mean revert back to 1600. However, the market isn't easy & the market is never obvious. The  question is how do we get there? Playing Bear for so long I have grown accustomed to violent whipsaws, as a result my trading strategy has become more cautious, playing shorter timeframes. I am not yet convinced that Bears are totally out of the woods yet. I expect there to be more whipsaws and most likely one final big Bull-Trap rally before all is said and done...
Picture
My main concern is seeing the Dollar Sell Off. I suspect that when we finally see the Dollar push new highs against the Euro that is when the Bear Market will accelerate! 
We are in uncharted waters now. I am not sure how this market will trade. I am unsure how/if/when the snapback rallies will occur. However, I do know that we will work our way lower over time.
Welcome to the Bear Market!
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Picture

    R. J. Sullivan IV

    Equity Research
    Portfolio Management
    ​Trading

    Picture
    Picture

    Archives

    September 2019
    March 2019
    December 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    January 2018
    October 2017
    July 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    November 2013
    October 2013

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

© BIGSKY INVESTMENTS®​

DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author(s). It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities. DATA INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO THE USERS "AS IS." NEITHER BIGSKY INVESTMENTS®, NOR ITS AFFILIATES, NOR ANY THIRD PARTY DATA PROVIDER MAKE ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND REGARDING THE DATA INFORMATION, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.