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The Fed-Bones Connected to the Jaw-Bone

9/25/2016

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Surprise surprise, the Fed didn’t move. Rates stuck at 0.25bps for a year. How quickly the narrative shifts when the market reacts.Open-Mouth-Operations keeping this leaky raft afloat. Raise those rates: Prick the bubble. Clearly, that’s not what they want. Certainly not before an election. Will Criminal-Clinton get crushed by the Trump-Train? Will anything change regardless of the outcome? Stay-Tuned, we shall see. The political sideshow in prime-time.
Yellen said it’s likely they would raise before the end of the year.. I believe that as much as I believe OPEC saying they will cut-production.
Markets held hostage. Stuck in purgatory.
Three things that can pop the Bubble:
  1. Dollar Breakout
  2. Oil New Lows
  3. Bond Market Selloff
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After the Fed moved last December markets experienced a swift sell-off. The Fed responded by immediately reversing their rhetoric from one of 'rate normalization' to one of 'data dependence.'
The Macro continues to deteriorate as the markets stagnate, waiting for the signal to make a move.
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The Magic-Ratio continues to hold it's deflationary trend. 
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OPEC: Worse than the Fed!
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Here's an old chart that really tells the story of when the market rebelled the rhetoric & the Fed Lost Credibility.
Stuck on autopilot 15,000ft in the air. The Feds lost control of the QE Jet. We're quickly running out of fuel...
​How do we land?
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    R. J. Sullivan IV

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