YELP is my next target. I have made some money previously in this stock when I was shorting in the $75 range. Once again this is a lesson in trend following and similar to AVP, I would have been well off doing nothing but letting the winning trade ride.
YELP went public March 2012 at $15 a share. Exactly like GPRO, TWTR, BABA & most of the recent IPOs, YELP went exceedingly parabolic, cresting two years later 578.5% higher at $101.75 a share! Unfortunately for most YELP shareholders, the stock has been drowning ever since getting cut in half, now trading in the mid $40s.
YELP went public March 2012 at $15 a share. Exactly like GPRO, TWTR, BABA & most of the recent IPOs, YELP went exceedingly parabolic, cresting two years later 578.5% higher at $101.75 a share! Unfortunately for most YELP shareholders, the stock has been drowning ever since getting cut in half, now trading in the mid $40s.
Technically the stock is a mess. The Weekly chart has made a massive H&S which measured move projects below prior all time lows. The stock is currently in a well established downtrend and the Price by Volume is indicating that the majority of shares were traded at higher prices than current price, this means that there is massive overhead supply in the stock. I have seen these parabolic moves play out time & time again and the end result always plays out exactly the same! Unfortunately after the initial parabolic move, price very rarely recovers to it's former heights. It is a misnomer to think that just because price has dropped alot from a previous reference point, it cannot drop any further. . Downtrends often surprise people in how long they can persist.
One very alluring technical draw to the YELP short is the existence of a 'fast zone' or gap in price where very few shares were traded. The horizontal Price by Volume bars expand in areas where heavy volume was traded and contract in areas where very few shares exchanged hands. Areas of thin volume contains less price memory, this means that price can move rapidly through these areas. There is a reason why most gaps tend to get filled by the market, and that is because price moves to the area of least resistance always.
The Technical reasons alone are enough to short this company but there are fundamental reasons as well. For one the company trades at a ridiculous 97.50 P/E multiple. YELP has no moat and it takes nothing for competitors such as GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, & YHOO to offer the exact same service and crush YELP. It was a novel idea at first but the shine is off it and a stench is beginning to surround the company. In fact there is even a documentary entitled Billion Dollar Bully being made that sheds light to some of the extortion techniques that are the backbone of YELPS business model.
I know the risk parameters of my trade, the black lines represent the bounds. If YELP somehow manages to get above 50 on convincing volume I will cut it but I see an opportunity to ride this stock down to 30. The Risk/Reward parameters of this trade are very favorable as I am risking a 6% draw-down for a potential 36% Gain.
The Market is going to collapse at some point in the near future and until it does, It is a much smarter going after questionable and damaged stocks such as YELP that are already in established downtrends rather than trying to attack leaders such as DIS, AAPL, SHW, etc..
Don't get caught long or you're sure to YELP when this stock gets crushed!
One very alluring technical draw to the YELP short is the existence of a 'fast zone' or gap in price where very few shares were traded. The horizontal Price by Volume bars expand in areas where heavy volume was traded and contract in areas where very few shares exchanged hands. Areas of thin volume contains less price memory, this means that price can move rapidly through these areas. There is a reason why most gaps tend to get filled by the market, and that is because price moves to the area of least resistance always.
The Technical reasons alone are enough to short this company but there are fundamental reasons as well. For one the company trades at a ridiculous 97.50 P/E multiple. YELP has no moat and it takes nothing for competitors such as GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, & YHOO to offer the exact same service and crush YELP. It was a novel idea at first but the shine is off it and a stench is beginning to surround the company. In fact there is even a documentary entitled Billion Dollar Bully being made that sheds light to some of the extortion techniques that are the backbone of YELPS business model.
I know the risk parameters of my trade, the black lines represent the bounds. If YELP somehow manages to get above 50 on convincing volume I will cut it but I see an opportunity to ride this stock down to 30. The Risk/Reward parameters of this trade are very favorable as I am risking a 6% draw-down for a potential 36% Gain.
The Market is going to collapse at some point in the near future and until it does, It is a much smarter going after questionable and damaged stocks such as YELP that are already in established downtrends rather than trying to attack leaders such as DIS, AAPL, SHW, etc..
Don't get caught long or you're sure to YELP when this stock gets crushed!
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