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Homebuilders at Inflection Point

1/29/2015

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I am of the opinion that home prices will drop at some point in the near future. Big earnings misses recently from KBH and LEN
I see the XHB at a potential inflection point if sellers present themselves here and solidify the January false breakout as a Bull Trap.
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Today I started a short position in Lumber Liquidators LL, Which checked back to its 200day MA in a bigger downtrend after a big downside earnings gap last July.
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I also started a short position in Sherwin Williams, a derivative of housing so to speak. SHW has been an absolute monster but on a longer term time frame look how ridiculously overextended it is. Playing for the abnormally steep uptrend to snap off.
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Inflated Property Values are an integral part of the China Bubble: China Weakness: A House of Cards
I also mentioned homebuilder weakness in an earlier post: Boom, Welcome to 2015
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Netflix H&S?

1/25/2015

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NFLX has some of the wildest moves on earnings over any other stock in the market. It's a battleground cult stock like GPRO people are very divided in the stock price. Either you love the company so much you feel like the price must always go higher despite any fundamental metric or you think the multiples people are paying are ludicrous and they are brilliant shorts.

Anyways NFLX had another huge earnings move and resultant short squeeze. It is now back at an area if defended by bears could be forming the right shoulder of a massive H&S.

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Wouldn't that be funny if the whole sort of financially engineered QE market tops out with NFLX putting in a gigantic H&S...
I can't help but think that NFLX will be the grand finale of the current bull market and with a bit more patience could be setting up to be the short of the decade.

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Change in Trend

1/21/2015

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A skilled market technician must be able to recognize trend and changes in trend.

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The KING is  Bleeding

1/9/2015

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I've been watching KING since this post I was shorting it back then and took a small profit but look how this stock is playing out. It made a brilliant H&S pattern, then bear flagged sideways for a bit. Today it broke down out of it's bearflag and I bought some puts on it expecting further downside continuation.
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    R. J. Sullivan IV

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