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Fly Like an Eagle

1/18/2016

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PictureNote Green Elder Impulse Weekly Bars in the UUP (US Dollar ETF) as well as the FXY (Japense Yen ETF)
Consistent with my core Deflationary macroeconomic thesis & worldview I expect the US Dollar to continue it's longstanding Bullish Supertrend throughout 2016. 
I also believe that with the Japanese Yen inverse correlation to equities coupled with a bear market in stocks. It is likely that the Japense Yen rises in tandem with the US Dollar throughout 2016. 

​Perhaps what has been most surprising is the resiliency of other developed market currencies (specifically the Euro.)
As we can see, the trade weighted US Dollar (comparing the dollar against every currency including emerging market currencies) is going nearly parabolic.
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This is Deflation. As credit defaults, money gets destroyed. This in turn, makes the currency more valuable. 
As long as we remain in a Deflationary environment, Cash is King!
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Breadbox Rotation

9/28/2015

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The Breadbox Rotation is kicking in as some of these soft commodities begin to perk up.
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Equities Have Weakened Drastically! 

9/21/2015

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The Wilshire 5000 has weakened Below the 200DMA as Compared to Stocks, The Dollar, Treasury Note Yields, Treasury Note Prices, Cocoa. The Only Thing they are Outperforming is Oil!
This Means that currently Equities & Oil are the Worst Asset Classes to be in.
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WTIC, Further to Fall

8/18/2015

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Heres the thing about WTIC. When it was over $100 a barrel, the black gold rush coupled with free money at 0% interest rates spurred one of the greatest buildouts of excess capacity an industry has ever seen. As a result cost reducing technology has been innovated, the number of producing oil wells worldwide is massive. On top of this, the wells that have all been recently built are pumping like crazy trying to produce enough volume to stay afloat.

I don't see this predicament ending well for players in the oil patch. There are some very deep pocketed liquid entities in this arena, people who can turn profits with oil trading at a fraction of what the market will currently buy at. At the end of the day, the people with the cheapest production cost will win. Don't be surprised to see oil hit 30s, 20s, or even new lows before the huge supply glut gets thinned out by market forces and an equilibrium is found...

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BDI Sinking

8/15/2015

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After receiving a Dead-Cat Bounce from extreme lows. The BDI is once again rolling over...
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Monthly Chart for Better Perspective. BDI been in the doldrums since the 2008 financial crisis (as has the global economy)
An Index of shipping rates, a weak BDI is a sign of weak global trade.
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The Trend is Your Friend Until it Bends in the End

8/14/2015

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I have been watching this ominous H&S play out for quite some time now...
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Dow Theory Top
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Breadth & Momentum is Rapidly Deteriorating.

8/12/2015

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Breadth & Momentum is Rapidly Deteriorating.
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WLSH Sell Signal
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Briefly Fell Below 200dma today. One more thrust should do it...
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Short Circuit: TSLA

8/10/2015

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It finally broke. TSLA loses $4000/car. The shining beacon of irrational exuberance. It is time to short TSLA into the ground...

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Transports Weak. Biotechs Pounded

4/27/2015

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Ever since QE ended, the market has been incessantly propped up mainly by central bank jawboning. The economic data  worsens every week. Macro data is at 6 year lows.. One sector has gotten weak and stayed weak this entire time. The sector representing a dominant pillar of Dow Theory: The Transports.
Price is being rejected from the 50day MA, lets see if price finally manages to break the 200day MA below.
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Transports are weak and a break below 154 could get ugly!
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Also of note today is the Biotech Sector getting pounded today on heavy sell volume. Biotech's have been absolute monsters, remaining well out in front the tape for almost the entire Bull Market. However, the volume/price action of late reeks of distribution. Let's see if this is yet another meaningless momentary dip only to be immediately ricocheted higher, or if we are seeing the early stages of a meaningful change of character...
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Short the Trash Homebuilders 

3/15/2015

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I've had my eyes on the Homebuilders for a while. This USG Corp is beginning to look ripe for a short. 
The Daily Chart shows that being in an uptrend since last October, USG failed to sustain the rally and has broken below all major MA including the very decisive 550 day MA (Black Line) The Moving Averages have been tightly compressed which typically indicates that a big explosive move is in the cards.  
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The Weekly Chart shows that USG found resistance at the 550 weekly MA, The 550 is a powerful indicator of trend on all timeframes and the fact that USG was not able to break above its 550w in this rockem sockem bull market should be a red flag to investors. We also discover that similar to YELP there exists a fast zone underneath USG. If price dips below the $26 level, things could get fast & loose to the downside! 
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I went short KBH last week. The chart looked very weak, and I have been waiting for an opportunity to short KBH since it got eviscerated on it's last earnings report. The rejection of the 50d & 200w MA seems like as good of an entry as any!
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I think that Homebuilders are ripe for a pullback & these charts have been screaming short! 
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    R. J. Sullivan IV

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